The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Our current assessment of aluminium market fundamentals points to a market that will be tight out to 2020. Our base case calls for a market that will register surpluses of around 200kt in 2019 and 2020 and balanced during 2017 and 2018. However the risks are skewed towards a market that could be in a more significant surplus over the next few years. Our forecasts of the near term global market balance during 2017 has steadily moved from surplus to deficit/balanced on the basis of better than expected economic and demand conditions and actual supply cuts in China feeding through to a slower pace of global output growth than previously assumed. Beyond 2020 much will depend on maintenance of producer discipline.