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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2017

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23 September 2017

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2017

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Our current assessment of aluminium market fundamentals points to a market that will be tight out to 2020. Our base case calls for a market that will register surpluses of around 200kt in 2019 and 2020 and balanced during 2017 and 2018. However, the risks are skewed towards a market that could be in a more significant surplus over the next few years. Our forecasts of the near term global market balance during 2017 has steadily moved from surplus to deficit/balanced on the basis of better than expected economic and demand conditions and actual supply cuts in China feeding through to a slower pace of global output growth than previously assumed. Beyond 2020 much will depend on maintenance of producer discipline.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Overview
      • Primary aluminium demand by region, 2010 - 2035
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • Asia (ex-China)
        • India
        • Japan
        • South Korea
      • Europe
      • North America
    • Smelter production and capacity
      • Summary
        • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
      • Smelter production changes since Q2 2017 and forecasts
      • Global smelter production and capacity 2016-2035
      • Africa
      • North America
        • North America aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Latin America
        • Latin America aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Middle East
      • Asia
        • Main contributors to Chinese aluminium production increases, 2016-2021 (ktpa)
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
        • Oceania aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Summary
        • Currently curtailed refineries that are at risk
        • Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation, 2005-2030
      • Refinery production changes since Q2 2017 and forecasts
      • Global refinery production and capacity 2016-2035
      • Africa
        • Contributions to 32 Mtpa alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2016-2021
      • North America
      • Latin America
        • Latin America alumina production
        • 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Middle East
        • Middle East alumina production
        • 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Asia
        • Chinese alumina production increases, 2016-2021 (kt/a)
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
        • Europe alumina production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
    • Bauxite Production
      • Total bauxite supply and demand, Mt
      • Africa bauxite production and demand, 2016-2021, 2025,2035
      • Asia bauxite production and demand 2016-2021, 2025, 2035
    • Aluminium market review and outlook
    • Long-term alumina prices
      • Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2035, (US$/t)

Tables and charts

This report includes 79 images and tables including:

  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Potential Guinean bauxite production profile, 2014-2030, Mtpa
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
  • Primary aluminium cash prices, 1970-2035 ($/t)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
  • Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
  • Global SGA balance, 2014-2021, 2025, 2030 and 2035
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2017 vs Q3 2017 (kt)
  • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
  • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Distribution of Chinese primary demand growth by end-use sector, 2016 and 2035
  • China primary housing demand and urban housing completions
  • Demand: Image 8
  • China non-residential building completions (excluding industrial and other buildings)
  • Demand: Image 10
  • Demand: Table 5
  • European primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • European demand for ABS vs production
  • North American primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • Production of automotive sheet
  • Share of North American demand by industry
  • Smelter capacity in 2+26 cities
  • ‘Potential’ heating season production impact
  • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2016-2021, (kt)
  • Revisions to Q2 2017 forecasts (kt)
  • Global aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Africa aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Asset level assessment – Shandong hardest hit - 90% of base capacity falls under the new regulations
  • China’s smelter restarts in 2017 to reach 1.4Mtpa
  • China’s smelter capacity change in 2017
  • China’s smelter production growth forecast 2016-2021
  • Europe aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Revisions to Q2 2017 forecast, (kt)
  • Global alumina production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Africa alumina production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • North America alumina production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Asia alumina production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania alumina production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Image 11
  • Supply: Table 27
  • Base case global bauxite supply 2016-2021, 2025, 2035 (Mt)
  • Regional bauxite supply/demand and balance (RHS), 2017, million tonnes
  • Supply: Table 29
  • Supply: Table 30
  • Supply: Table 31
  • Supply: Table 32
  • Supply: Table 33
  • Alumina refineries and projects and total implied bauxite exports (using 3x bauxite ratio), Mt
  • Europe bauxite production and demand 2016-2021, 2025, 2035
  • Russian and Caspian bauxite production and demand 2016-2021, 2025, 2035
  • Oceania bauxite production and demand 2016-2021, 2025, 2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Contributions to 16 Mtpa aluminium supply growth, 2016-2021
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Middle East aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Asia aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 14
  • Supply: Table 15
  • Supply: Image 7
  • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
  • Supply: Image 9
  • Supply: Table 20
  • Supply: Table 21
  • Supply: Table 23
  • Supply: Table 24

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q3 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.23 MB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 474.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 287.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 890.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 591.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 956.50 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 692.50 KB

  • Document

    Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 416.50 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 275.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2017

    PDF 1.48 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2017

    ZIP 4.76 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack aluminium LTO Q3 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.09 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 83.20 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 322.61 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 932.46 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 290.68 KB

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