Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2020 Report

Commodity Market Report 12 September 2020

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Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. We maintain our view that the market is set to accumulate a significant surplus out to 2024. China demand growth looks better – following a supply led V-shaped recovery. In contrast, ROW consumption has weakened further during 2020. Smelter supply continues to grow, albeit modestly. High stock accumulation and higher scrap usage means there is little requirement for investment in new smelting capacity over the long-term. Future demand growth will be increasingly met by recycled aluminium. Our In-Focus section explores a path to a greener aluminium industry. Much will depend on the willingness producers, consumers and governments to accelerate the use of renewable energy for metal production and increase the use of scrap throughout the aluminium value chain.

Aluminium market outlook
- Long-run aluminium prices
Alumina market outlook
- Long-run alumina prices
Bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- A path to greener aluminium
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2020
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- United States
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Global smelter production and capacity 2019-2040
- Asia
- China
- India
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- Europe
- Russia and Caspian
- Oceania
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Global refinery production and capacity 2019-2040
- Africa
- Asia
- India
- Indonesia
- China
- Europe
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
Forecasting methodology
Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
Risks around the incentive price
Bauxite pricing
- Global smelter production and capability 2019-2040
- Global refinery production and capability 2019-2040
- Global bauxite production, demand and regional balances 2019-2040
Regional demand tables

Tables and charts

This report includes 83 images and tables including:

Global aluminium balance and prices
Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2010-2040, Mtpa
Stock days of consumption and price

Global supply-demand balance
Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
Global alumina balance and prices
Stock days and price
Smelter grade alumina balance
Alumina demand and capacity (95% utilisation), 2010-2040, Mtpa
Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
Quality-adjusted weighted average fob prices for low temperature bauxite, 2020-2040
Time charter rates, 2010-2030, US$/day
Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
Global primary aluminium consumption by region 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
China primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
African primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Asian primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
European primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Latin America primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Middle East primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
North America primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Russia primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Aluminium incentive price, long run operating cost and capital intensity, US$/t
Incentive price set at US$2100/t (real 2020 $)
Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
Alumina incentive price, long run operating cost and capital intensity, US$/t
Alumina incentive price set at US$350/t (real 2020 $)
Spot alumina prices, 1991-2040
Base, high and low price scenarios (real US$/t)
Global smelting power mix, 1990-2020
Scope 1 & 2 carbon intensity, 1990-2020
Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q2 2020 (Mt)
Global primary consumption set to peak at 78 Mt in 2029
Greater scrap collection, processing and use will support future secondary consumption
Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2020 vs Q3 2020 (kt)
Rising secondary offtake will support total aluminium consumption per capita at 35 kg by 2040
Total demand split by end-use sectors
Total consumption by product form
Non-residential construction to provide support to aluminium consumption to 2026
European capacity and production of aluminium automotive sheet
US consumption per end-use sector
US capacity and production of aluminium automotive sheet
Supply and demand for high-silicon scrap in the automotive sector
Global capacity utilisation
Global aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
China greenfield aluminium projects
Global alumina production 2019-2023, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (Mt)
Aditya alumina refinery capital expenditure
New southern-based projects, ktpa
Guinea bauxite production expansion by mine/project status, 2010-2040
Provincial distribution of China’s imported bauxite demand, 2019-2040 (Mt)
Global aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Africa aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
North America aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Latin America aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Middle East aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Asia aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Europe aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Russia and Caspian aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Oceania aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Global alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Africa alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
North America alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Latin America alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Middle East alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Asia alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Europe alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Russia and Caspian alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Oceania alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Global metallurgical bauxite supply, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Global metallurgical bauxite demand, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Africa bauxite supply, demand and balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
North America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Latin America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Middle East bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Asia bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Europe bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Russia and Caspian bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Oceania bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices (Mt)