Commodity market report
| |
58 Pages

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2013


Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2013

Report summary

Since the end of 2011, there have been over 2Mt of voluntary smelter curtailments outside China and around 2.5Mt in China.  Given that we maintain a positive consumption forecast for aluminium, the full impact of these smelter curtailments is reflected in a smaller projected surplus.  Our latest forecast points to a global balance of 0.9Mt in 2014, down from 1.1Mt in the Q3 LTO and 0.7Mt in 2015.

What's included?

This report includes 10 file(s)

  • Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2013 PDF - 4.04 MB 58 Pages, 40 Tables, 31 Figures
  • Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 496.50 KB
  • Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 727.00 KB
  • Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 202.50 KB
  • Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 304.50 KB
  • Production rankings aluminium LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 448.50 KB
  • Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 289.50 KB
  • Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 927.00 KB
  • Economic Forecasts 4Q 2013.pdf PDF - 397.08 KB
  • Slide Pack LTO Q4 2013.pdf PDF - 944.08 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Refinery production and capacity
      • Summary
    • Refinery production changes since Q3 2013 and forecasts
    • Global refinery production and capacity 2012-30
      • Africa
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • Asia
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
    • Smelter production and capacity
      • Summary
    • Smelter production changes since Q3 2013 and forecasts
      • Global smelter production and capacity 2012-30
      • Africa
      • North America
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • Asia
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
  • Demand
    • Overview
    • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q3 2013
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • India
      • Japan and South Korea
      • The Middle East
      • Europe
      • North America
      • Latin America
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Alumina market outlook
    • Long-term alumina prices
    • Aluminium market review and outlook
      • Short term aluminium prices
      • Long term aluminium prices

In this report there are 71 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation w/o Gove after 2014, 2005-2020
    • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2030
    • Revisions to Q3 2013 forecast, (kt)
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Africa alumina production 2012-2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Contributions to 24Mt/a alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2012-2016
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Latin America alumina production 2012-2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Middle East alumina production 2012-2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 7
    • China’s import–dependent refineries had about 70 weeks bauxite stockpiled in October
    • Chinese bauxite imports by month, Jan 2010-October 2013
    • Chinese alumina production increases, 2012-2016 (kt/a)
    • Europe alumina production 2012-2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 10
    • Oceania alumina production 2012-2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 12
    • Global smelter capacity and demand, 2005-2030
    • Contributions to 13.4Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2012-2016
    • Supply: Table 13
    • Global aluminium production 2012-2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Africa aluminium production 2012-2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • North America aluminium production 2012-2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Latin America aluminium production 2012-2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Middle East aluminium production 2012-2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 19
    • Chinese aluminium production increases, 2012-2016 (kt/a)
    • Supply: Table 21
    • Europe aluminium production 2012-2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2012-2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Oceania aluminium production 2012-2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
  • Demand
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
    • Global vehicle production (Passenger and Commercial)
    • Aluminium usage per car forecast
    • Aluminium consumption in cars (including secondary)
    • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q3 2013 vs Q4 2013 (kt)
    • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Chinese change in urban population
    • Chinese floor space under construction
    • BRIC Vehicle Production 1995 - 2030
    • Chinese investment in infrastructure under 12th Plan
    • India total aluminium consumption by sector - 2012
    • Indian aluminium consumption by process
    • South Korea primary aluminium consumption
    • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Expected change in GCC capacity by product between 2012-2015
    • Expected change in GCC capacity by country between 2012-2015
    • Demand: Table 6
    • Demand: Image 13
    • Demand: Table 7
    • Demand: Image 14
    • North American aluminium consumption by product
    • North America primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Demand: Table 9
    • Brazil total aluminium consumption by sector
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Voluntary smelter cuts since Q4 2011
    • Rio Tinto Alcan structural SGA balance
    • Spot alumina prices Jan 2008-Dec 2013, (fob $/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2012-2015, (kt)
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Global SGA balance, 2012-2030
    • Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2030, ($/t)
    • Global balance, stock in days of consumption and LME Cash price (nominal)
    • Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
    • Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
    • Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2030 and incentive price ($/t)
    • Primary aluminium cash prices, ($/t)
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions

Mailenquiries@woodmac.com
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.