Commodity market report
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70 Pages

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2014


Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2014

Report summary

We expect global primary aluminium consumption growth to average 5.4% over the 2013-2017 period, driven by firm demand growth in emerging markets and by the increasing penetration of aluminium in end-use sectors such as automotive, transportation and power

What's included?

This report includes 10 file(s)

  • Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2014 PDF - 888.53 KB 70 Pages, 41 Tables, 20 Figures
  • Aluminium Tables Q4 2014.pdf PDF - 1004.93 KB
  • Slide pack aluminium LTO Q4 2014.pdf PDF - 1.21 MB
  • Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2014.xls XLS - 218.00 KB
  • Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2014.xls XLS - 856.00 KB
  • Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2014.xls XLS - 359.50 KB
  • Production rankings aluminium LTO Q4 2014.xls XLS - 474.50 KB
  • Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2014.xls XLS - 788.00 KB
  • Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2014.xls XLS - 567.50 KB
  • Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q4 2014.xls XLS - 265.00 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Overview
    • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q3 2014
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • Chinese total aluminium consumption and IP forecast
      • Chinese aluminium consumption breakdown by major end-uses, 2011-2025
      • Asia (ex-China)
      • The Middle East
      • Europe
      • European automotive sheet
      • European car production
      • North America
      • Latin America
  • Supply
    • Refinery production and capacity
      • Summary
    • Refinery production changes since Q3 2014 and forecasts
    • Global refinery production and capacity 2013-2035
      • Global alumina production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Africa
      • Africa alumina production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • North America
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • Middle East alumina production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Asia
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
    • Smelter production and capacity
      • Summary
    • Global smelter production and capacity 2013-2035
      • Africa
      • North America
      • Asia
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Alumina market outlook

In this report there are 61 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
    • Demand: Table 2
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
    • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Rural and urban housing completions (M sq m)
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Total Chinese aluminium consumption and consumption per capita
    • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Demand: Table 7
    • Demand: Image 6
    • Demand: Image 7
    • North America primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • North American aluminium demand by industry
    • North America automotive sheet and auto production
    • Latin America primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Construction and car production in Brazil
    • Brazil sectoral demand breakdown
  • Supply
    • Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation, 2005-2020
    • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Contributions to 24Mt/a alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2013-2017
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Supply: Table 6
    • Chinese alumina production increases, 2013-2017 (kt/a)
    • Supply: Image 4
    • Asia alumina production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Europe alumina production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 10
    • Supply: Table 11
    • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2013-2018, (kt)
    • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2006-2020
    • Contributions to 12Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2013-2017
    • Supply: Table 13
    • Supply: Table 14
    • Africa aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • North America aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 17
    • Middle East aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 19
    • Supply: Table 20
    • Supply: Table 21
    • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Oceania aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Chinese bauxite imports slowly moving higher
    • Affordable alumina cost relative to the "all-in" aluminium price
    • ROW smelters supporting SGA demand growth
    • Spot alumina prices Jan 2008-Sept 2014, (fob $/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2013-2016, (kt)
    • Long-term alumina prices
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 5
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 7
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 8
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 9
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