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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2015

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Report summary

The first meaningful signs that China may be moving to rationalise its capacity growth coupled with capacity cuts in ROW during the final three months of 2015 suggests a global aluminium market that moves towards balance over the next couple of years. However we remain wary over short term prospects for the balance and prices given the fragility of cutbacks and the continued demand downtrend in China. Beyond 2017 we expect the market to move back into surplus against the backdrop of a sharp slowdown in global economic activity. We are not as yet convinced that the recent Chinese capacity cutbacks will be maintained for long enough to eradicate the endemic structural oversupply within the market. For 2015 we now expect demand to grow by 4.3% slightly lower than our Q3 estimate versus 5.5% growth in output. Despite a better short term market balance we anticipate prices to remain under pressure from negative sentiment across the metals complex.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q4 2015.pdf

    PDF 1.02 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack aluminium LTO Q4 2015.pdf

    PDF 781.38 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 266.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 894.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 363.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 473.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 773.00 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 554.00 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 272.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2015

    PDF 952.22 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2015

    ZIP 3.55 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 89.16 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 250.13 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 364.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 356.66 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 69 images and tables including:

Images

  • Spot alumina prices Jan 2008-Dec 2015, (FOB $/t)
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Primary aluminium demand by region, 2010 - 2035
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Change in global supply/demand balance forecast Q3 vs. Q4 2015.
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 7
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 8
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 9
  • China's sectors rebalancing
  • Aluminium consumption and consumption per capita in 2010 - 2035, (Mt and kg/capita)
  • Asian vehicle production, 1995 - 2035
  • Japanese production of aluminium windows, doors & exteriors
  • European car production
  • European demand and supply for automotive sheet
  • Demand: Image 10
  • Demand: Image 11
  • North American demand by sector
  • China bauxite imports, (Mt)
  • Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation, 2005-2025
  • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply: Image 5
  • Supply: Image 6
  • Contributions to 10Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2014-2018
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 4

Tables

  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Revisions to Q3 2015 forecast, (kt)
  • Global alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Revisions to Q3 2015 forecasts (kt)
  • Global aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Global SGA balance, 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q3 2015 vs Q4 2015 (kt)
  • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Demand: Table 6
  • Demand: Table 7
  • Africa alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Middle East alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Asia alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Supply: Table 13
  • Africa aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 17
  • Supply: Table 18
  • Supply: Table 19
  • Supply: Table 20
  • Supply: Table 21
  • Supply: Table 22
  • Asia aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 24
  • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 5
  • Global SGA market balances and prices (Mt)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 8

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