The first meaningful signs that China may be moving to rationalise its capacity growth coupled with capacity cuts in ROW during the final three months of 2015 suggests a global aluminium market that moves towards balance over the next couple of years. However, we remain wary over short term prospects for the balance and prices, given the fragility of cutbacks and the continued demand downtrend in China. Beyond 2017, we expect the market to move back into surplus against the backdrop of a sharp slowdown in global economic activity. We are not, as yet, convinced that the recent Chinese capacity cutbacks will be maintained for long enough to eradicate the endemic structural oversupply within the market. For 2015 we now expect demand to grow by 4.3% slightly lower than our Q3 estimate versus 5.5% growth in output. Despite a better short term market balance we anticipate prices to remain under pressure from negative sentiment across the metals complex.
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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2015 PDF - 952.22 KB 80 Pages, 41 Tables, 28 Figures
Aluminium Tables Q4 2015.pdf PDF - 1.02 MB
Slide pack aluminium LTO Q4 2015.pdf PDF - 781.38 KB
As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.
This Aluminium Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.
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Commodity market report | Dec 2015
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2015
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