Commodity market report
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80 Pages

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2015


Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2015

Report summary

The first meaningful signs that China may be moving to rationalise its capacity growth coupled with capacity cuts in ROW during the final three months of 2015 suggests a global aluminium market that moves towards balance over the next couple of years. However, we remain wary over short term prospects for the balance and prices, given the fragility of cutbacks and the continued demand downtrend in China. Beyond 2017, we expect the market to move back into surplus against the backdrop of a sharp slowdown in global economic activity. We are not, as yet, convinced that the recent Chinese capacity cutbacks will be maintained for long enough to eradicate the endemic structural oversupply within the market. For 2015 we now expect demand to grow by 4.3% slightly lower than our Q3 estimate versus 5.5% growth in output. Despite a better short term market balance we anticipate prices to remain under pressure from negative sentiment across the metals complex.

What's included?

This report includes 10 file(s)

  • Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2015 PDF - 952.22 KB 80 Pages, 41 Tables, 28 Figures
  • Aluminium Tables Q4 2015.pdf PDF - 1.02 MB
  • Slide pack aluminium LTO Q4 2015.pdf PDF - 781.38 KB
  • Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 266.00 KB
  • Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 894.50 KB
  • Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 363.00 KB
  • Production rankings aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 473.50 KB
  • Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 773.00 KB
  • Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 554.00 KB
  • Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 272.00 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Overview
      • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q3 2015
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
      • India
      • The Middle East
      • European primary aluminium consumption (kt)
      • Americas primary aluminium consumption (kt)
      • North America
  • Supply
    • Refinery production and capacity
      • Summary
    • Refinery production changes since Q3 2015 and forecasts
    • Global refinery production and capacity 2014-2035
      • Africa
      • Contributions to 21Mt/a alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2014-2018
      • North America
      • Latin America
      • Latin America alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Middle East
      • Asia
      • Chinese alumina production increases, 2014-2018 (kt/a)
      • Some additional bauxite projects with China import potential
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
    • Smelter production and capacity
      • Summary
      • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2014-2018, (kt)
      • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2005-2025
    • Smelter production changes since Q3 2015 and forecasts
    • Global smelter production and capacity 2014-2035
      • Africa
      • North America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Latin America
      • Latin America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Middle East
      • Middle East aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Asia
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Europe aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Long-term alumina prices
      • Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2035, ($/t)
    • Aluminium market review and outlook
      • Global aluminium balance, 2014-2035
    • Long term aluminium prices
    • Review of Historical Prices
      • Alumina
      • 2005
      • 2006
      • 2007
      • 2008
      • Aluminium
      • Global primary aluminium market balances and prices (Mt)
      • 2004
      • 2005

In this report there are 69 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
    • Primary aluminium demand by region, 2010 - 2035
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q3 2015 vs Q4 2015 (kt)
    • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
    • Demand: Table 4
    • China's sectors rebalancing
    • Aluminium consumption and consumption per capita in 2010 - 2035, (Mt and kg/capita)
    • Asian vehicle production, 1995 - 2035
    • Japanese production of aluminium windows, doors & exteriors
    • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Demand: Table 6
    • European car production
    • European demand and supply for automotive sheet
    • Demand: Table 7
    • Demand: Image 10
    • Demand: Image 11
    • North American demand by sector
  • Supply
    • China bauxite imports, (Mt)
    • Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation, 2005-2025
    • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
    • Revisions to Q3 2015 forecast, (kt)
    • Global alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Africa alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Image 4
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Middle East alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 7
    • Supply: Image 5
    • Supply: Table 8
    • Asia alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 10
    • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 12
    • Supply: Table 13
    • Supply: Image 6
    • Contributions to 10Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2014-2018
    • Revisions to Q3 2015 forecasts (kt)
    • Global aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Africa aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 17
    • Supply: Table 18
    • Supply: Table 19
    • Supply: Table 20
    • Supply: Table 21
    • Supply: Table 22
    • Asia aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 24
    • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Oceania aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Spot alumina prices Jan 2008-Dec 2015, (FOB $/t)
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
    • Global SGA balance, 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • Change in global supply/demand balance forecast Q3 vs. Q4 2015.
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 5
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 7
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 8
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 9
    • Global SGA market balances and prices (Mt)
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 8
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