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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2015

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11 December 2015

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2015

Report summary

The first meaningful signs that China may be moving to rationalise its capacity growth coupled with capacity cuts in ROW during the final three months of 2015 suggests a global aluminium market that moves towards balance over the next couple of years. However, we remain wary over short term prospects for the balance and prices, given the fragility of cutbacks and the continued demand downtrend in China. Beyond 2017, we expect the market to move back into surplus against the backdrop of a sharp slowdown in global economic activity. We are not, as yet, convinced that the recent Chinese capacity cutbacks will be maintained for long enough to eradicate the endemic structural oversupply within the market. For 2015 we now expect demand to grow by 4.3% slightly lower than our Q3 estimate versus 5.5% growth in output. Despite a better short term market balance we anticipate prices to remain under pressure from negative sentiment across the metals complex.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Overview
      • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q3 2015
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
      • India
      • The Middle East
      • European primary aluminium consumption (kt)
      • Americas primary aluminium consumption (kt)
      • North America
    • Refinery production and capacity
      • Summary
    • Refinery production changes since Q3 2015 and forecasts
    • Global refinery production and capacity 2014-2035
      • Africa
      • Contributions to 21Mt/a alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2014-2018
      • North America
      • Latin America
      • Latin America alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Middle East
      • Asia
      • Chinese alumina production increases, 2014-2018 (kt/a)
      • Some additional bauxite projects with China import potential
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
    • Smelter production and capacity
      • Summary
      • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2014-2018, (kt)
      • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2005-2025
    • Smelter production changes since Q3 2015 and forecasts
    • Global smelter production and capacity 2014-2035
      • Africa
      • North America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Latin America
      • Latin America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Middle East
      • Middle East aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Asia
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Europe aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
    • Long-term alumina prices
      • Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2035, ($/t)
    • Aluminium market review and outlook
      • Global aluminium balance, 2014-2035
    • Long term aluminium prices
    • Review of Historical Prices
      • Alumina
      • 2005
      • 2006
      • 2007
      • 2008
      • Aluminium
      • Global primary aluminium market balances and prices (Mt)
      • 2004
      • 2005

Tables and charts

This report includes 69 images and tables including:

  • Spot alumina prices Jan 2008-Dec 2015, (FOB $/t)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Primary aluminium demand by region, 2010 - 2035
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Revisions to Q3 2015 forecast, (kt)
  • Global alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Revisions to Q3 2015 forecasts (kt)
  • Global aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Global SGA balance, 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035
  • Change in global supply/demand balance forecast Q3 vs. Q4 2015.
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 7
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 8
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 9
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q3 2015 vs Q4 2015 (kt)
  • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
  • Demand: Table 4
  • China's sectors rebalancing
  • Aluminium consumption and consumption per capita in 2010 - 2035, (Mt and kg/capita)
  • Asian vehicle production, 1995 - 2035
  • Japanese production of aluminium windows, doors & exteriors
  • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Demand: Table 6
  • European car production
  • European demand and supply for automotive sheet
  • Demand: Table 7
  • Demand: Image 10
  • Demand: Image 11
  • North American demand by sector
  • China bauxite imports, (Mt)
  • Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation, 2005-2025
  • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
  • Africa alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Middle East alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Image 5
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Asia alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Supply: Table 13
  • Supply: Image 6
  • Contributions to 10Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2014-2018
  • Africa aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 17
  • Supply: Table 18
  • Supply: Table 19
  • Supply: Table 20
  • Supply: Table 21
  • Supply: Table 22
  • Asia aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 24
  • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 5
  • Global SGA market balances and prices (Mt)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 8

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q4 2015.pdf

    PDF 1.02 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack aluminium LTO Q4 2015.pdf

    PDF 781.38 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 266.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 894.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 363.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 473.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 773.00 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 554.00 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 272.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2015

    PDF 952.22 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2015

    ZIP 3.55 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 89.16 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 250.13 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 364.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 356.66 KB

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