The first meaningful signs that China may be moving to rationalise its capacity growth coupled with capacity cuts in ROW during the final three months of 2015 suggests a global aluminium market that moves towards balance over the next couple of years. However we remain wary over short term prospects for the balance and prices given the fragility of cutbacks and the continued demand downtrend in China. Beyond 2017 we expect the market to move back into surplus against the backdrop of a sharp slowdown in global economic activity. We are not as yet convinced that the recent Chinese capacity cutbacks will be maintained for long enough to eradicate the endemic structural oversupply within the market. For 2015 we now expect demand to grow by 4.3% slightly lower than our Q3 estimate versus 5.5% growth in output. Despite a better short term market balance we anticipate prices to remain under pressure from negative sentiment across the metals complex.