The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. We have revised our China demand growth forecasts higher following the a reassessment of the impact of 2016 stimulus measures on economic growth. This momentum will carry through well into 2017 and provide uplift to demand. Nevertheless, we continue to project growth slowing over the short-medium term. At the same time, Chinese output growth continues to accelerate, incentivised by high SHFE prices and new low cost capacity and restarts of idled production. This will halve our 2016 global metal surplus to 300kt from our previous estimate and lower our projected market surplus out to 2019. The risk remains that despite higher Chinese demand growth, the outlook for offtake in the world ex-China remains mixed and that elevated metal prices will likely further incentivise further capacity additions moving forward.