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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2016

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2016

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium  supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. We have revised our China demand growth forecasts higher following the a reassessment of the impact of 2016 stimulus measures on economic growth. This momentum will carry through well into 2017 and provide uplift to demand. Nevertheless, we continue to project growth slowing over the short-medium term. At the same time, Chinese output growth continues to accelerate, incentivised by high SHFE prices and new low cost capacity and restarts of idled production. This will halve our 2016 global metal surplus to 300kt from our previous estimate and lower our projected market surplus out to 2019. The risk remains that despite higher Chinese demand growth, the outlook for offtake in the world ex-China remains mixed and that elevated metal prices will likely further incentivise further capacity additions moving forward.

What's included?

This report includes 11 file(s)

  • Aluminium Tables Q4 2016.pdf PDF - 1.14 MB
  • Slide pack aluminium LTO Q4 2016.pdf PDF - 1.19 MB
  • Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 886.50 KB
  • Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 282.00 KB
  • Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 582.50 KB
  • Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 293.50 KB
  • Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 662.50 KB
  • Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 930.50 KB
  • Production rankings aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 474.00 KB
  • Bauxite analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 71.00 KB
  • Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 488.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • What’s changed?
    • Demand update
    • Supply update
    • Supply-demand balances update
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