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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2016

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19 December 2016

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2016

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium  supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. We have revised our China demand growth forecasts higher following the a reassessment of the impact of 2016 stimulus measures on economic growth. This momentum will carry through well into 2017 and provide uplift to demand. Nevertheless, we continue to project growth slowing over the short-medium term. At the same time, Chinese output growth continues to accelerate, incentivised by high SHFE prices and new low cost capacity and restarts of idled production. This will halve our 2016 global metal surplus to 300kt from our previous estimate and lower our projected market surplus out to 2019. The risk remains that despite higher Chinese demand growth, the outlook for offtake in the world ex-China remains mixed and that elevated metal prices will likely further incentivise further capacity additions moving forward.

Table of contents

    • What’s changed?
    • Demand update
    • Supply update
    • Supply-demand balances update

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q4 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.14 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack aluminium LTO Q4 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.19 MB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 886.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 282.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 582.50 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 293.50 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 662.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 930.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 474.00 KB

  • Document

    Bauxite analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 71.00 KB

  • Document

    Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 488.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2016

    ZIP 3.42 MB

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