Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2017

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15 December 2017

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2017

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. The main changes since the September 2017 LTO centres on an upward revision to global demand growth and lower short term growth in Chinese smelter output. These adjustments has tightened our market balance further. We now expect days of consumption in 2017 to fall below our long term average of 70 days. Further out we project a more or less balanced market. However, it should be noted that the market still continues to carry a high level of inventory over the medium term, hitting 13 Mt by 2021.

Table of contents

    • What’s changed?
    • Demand update
    • Supply update
    • Supply-demand balances update

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Slide pack aluminium LTO Q4 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.35 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 276.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 854.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 575.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 471.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 1000.00 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 668.50 KB

  • Document

    Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 399.50 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q4 2017.xls

    XLS 253.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2017

    ZIP 2.47 MB