Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 20 December 2018

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What’s the key takeaway of this year’s report?

The aluminium market continues to be buffeted by turbulence. Escalating trade tensions and a more protectionist global trading environment over the medium term pose a major risk for the global economy and for aluminium demand. Any sharp deceleration in economic activity would tip the aluminium market into a large surplus.

Why buy this report?
Get answers to all your questions including:

How China’s metal supply constraints will impact the global aluminium market over the next 10 years.
Who are the real winners and losers from growth in aluminium demand?
Where will the next generation of refinery projects will come from and at what incentive price.

China base capacity estimate 2018

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. Trade, tariffs and sanctions have been the major drivers of the aluminium market during the first six months in 2018. The balance of risk points to some solution being found to keep Rusal in the market. However, we are now in the midst of what seems to be a global trade war where initial rhetoric has now escalated into action. What began as US tariffs on aluminium and steel under Section 232 has blown out to cover a wide range of products, some of which are aluminium intensive. This suggests a volatile pricing environment and heightened risk of a sharp deceleration in global economic activity which could derail our steady state metal demand outlook.