Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2019

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. Wood Mackenzie’s latest iteration of the global aluminium market balance shows a market that will move into surplus from 2020 onwards. Between 2020 and 2024, we expect a cumulative surplus of more than 2 Mt. This is despite negative production adjustments between 2020 and 2022. Unsurprisingly, our average annual LME price forecast in nominal terms will stay below US$1800/t over the next four years. The message is clear, from the starting point of 2019, producers will need to make production cuts over and above our implied cuts to bring the market back towards balance.