Commodity market report
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30 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2016


Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2016

Report summary

The aluminium price has been the one of the best performers on the LME in 2016, second only to zinc. Prices have risen 11% since the first trading day of 2016 with current quotes well above the $1,620/t level. Indeed, since the start of April aluminium prices have gained roughly 6%. Investor confidence is being driven by a number of factors: A belief that prices were heavily undersold Q4 2015 and that retracement was inevitable; better expected demand in China on the back of stimulus measures aimed at shoring up infrastructure growth and a slow pace of production restarts. The rise in SHFE prices can largely be attributed to a heavy inflow of high velocity speculative money into the broader commodities market, particularly in steel rebar futures, dragging base metals higher. We continue to question the sustainability of recent price gains and believe that prices are reaching an overbought level with short term profit taking likely to drag prices lower over the coming month.


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2016 PDF - 719.10 KB 30 Pages, 13 Tables, 15 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO April 2016.xls XLS - 439.50 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
      • China home sales, starts and completions (floor space)
    • Asia ex-China
    • Japan
    • India
    • South Korea
    • North America
    • Europe
  • Supply
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since March (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since March, (kt)

In this report there are 28 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • LME price index (4th Jan 2016 = 100)
    • LME cash prices and cash - three month spreads (Jan-Apr 2016)
    • Supply/demand balance, 2012-2018
    • LME forward spreads, 1st Jan versus 28th April
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • China exports of extrusions
    • Japanese semis output
    • South Korean sheet and plate output and shipments
    • SHFE/LME arbitrage for semi-fabricated products
    • Automotive sheet capacity in North America
    • Extrusion shipments in North America
    • Shipments of FRPs by major European country
    • Shipments of extrusion by major European countries
    • Chinese exports of semis to EU 28
  • Supply
    • China’s set to re-start about 50% of recently shutdown capacity in 2016
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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