Commodity market report

Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2017

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. After an extended period of nominal market surpluses, the global aluminium market looks to be finally moving definitively towards balance over the next 2-3 years. Much will still depend on supply side adjustments in China and how they play out over the near term. Pollution related cutbacks and a clampdown on regulation non-compliance for new capacity are back on the agenda. Unsurprisingly, the LME price has continued to show strength during April trading mostly well above $1900/t and has been the best performing metal on the LME over the past month.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO April 2017.xls

    XLS 520.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2017

    PDF 717.55 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2017

    ZIP 900.39 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
      • China homes sales, starts and completions
      • Fixed asset investment
      • Japanese semis output
    • North America
      • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
      • Changes in global SGA production estimates since March, (kt)
      • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 29 images and tables including:


  • Global supply/demand balance, 2010-2019
  • Index of LME prices Jan - April 2017
  • LME cash price and cash to 3 month spread, Jun 2016 - April 2017
  • Global aluminium premiums
  • US imports of primary aluminium by major countries
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 1
  • North American shipments of extrusions
  • North American shipments of automotive sheet
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 4


  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply: Table 1
  • China new smelter capacity in 2017
  • Supply: Table 3
  • New Chinese alumina capacity in 2017, (kt)
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

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