Commodity market report

Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2017

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two years. After an extended period of nominal market surpluses the global aluminium market looks to be finally moving definitively towards balance over the next 2 3 years. Much will still depend on supply side adjustments in China and how they play out over the near term. Pollution related cutbacks and a clampdown on regulation non compliance for new capacity are back on the agenda. Unsurprisingly the LME price has continued to show strength during April trading mostly well above $1900/t and has been the best performing metal on the LME over the past month.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO April 2017.xls

    XLS 520.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2017

    PDF 717.55 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2017

    ZIP 900.39 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 29 images and tables including:

Images

  • Global supply/demand balance, 2010-2019
  • Index of LME prices Jan - April 2017
  • LME cash price and cash to 3 month spread, Jun 2016 - April 2017
  • Global aluminium premiums
  • US imports of primary aluminium by major countries
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 1
  • North American shipments of extrusions
  • North American shipments of automotive sheet
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 4

Tables

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply: Table 1
  • China new smelter capacity in 2017
  • Supply: Table 3
  • New Chinese alumina capacity in 2017, (kt)
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

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