Commodity market report
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31 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2016

Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2016

Report summary

The monthly aluminium market service short term outlook provides a forecast of aluminium supply/demand fundamentals over the next two-years. LME prices moved higher throughout the first half of August, initially driven up by the release of Chinese PMI data showing a move above the 50 reading threshold between expansion and contraction. Prices received another push from a weaker US dollar as expectations of an early US interest rise receded. Prices hit a monthly peak of $1,690/t on 18th August before sliding back down towards the $1,620/t level by month end. The most recent statement from the US Fed seemed to suggest that rate rises were back on the agenda, strengthening the dollar. While prices have found support above the $1,600/t level, market fundamentals continue to suggest a global market that is in reasonable surplus. At the same time physical premia continue to slide ever closer to base cost levels in a market where there is no shortage of available of metal.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2016 PDF - 626.81 KB 31 Pages, 12 Tables, 18 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO August 2016.xls XLS - 504.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
    • Japan
    • Taiwan
    • Mexico
    • Europe
  • Supply
    • Alumina Market Developments

In this report there are 30 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • LME cash prices and cash-three month spreads (March-August 2016)
    • Global supply/demand balance, 2010-2018
    • China semis output and net trade
    • US imports of primary aluminium and aluminium alloys
    • Global benchmark aluminium premia
  • Demand
    • China PMIs take divergent paths
    • Real estate investment split by source, Jan 2006 - June 2016
    • Automotive production and sales
    • Japanese semis shipment
    • Japanese housing starts
    • Taiwan output of aluminium sheet
    • SHFE/LME arbitrage for exports of semi fabricated products
    • North American shipments of FRP
    • North American shipments of extrusions
  • Supply
    • ROW growth offset by sluggish China output in July
    • China’s output expected to resume its upward trend in the remaining months of 2016
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since July (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
    • Chinese alumina imports, (kt)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2015-2018, (kt)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since July, (kt)
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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