The monthly aluminium market service short term outlook provides a forecast of aluminium supply/demand fundamentals over the next two years. LME prices moved higher throughout the first half of August initially driven up by the release of Chinese PMI data showing a move above the 50 reading threshold between expansion and contraction. Prices received another push from a weaker US dollar as expectations of an early US interest rise receded. Prices hit a monthly peak of $1 690/t on 18th August before sliding back down towards the $1 620/t level by month end. The most recent statement from the US Fed seemed to suggest that rate rises were back on the agenda strengthening the dollar. While prices have found support above the $1 600/t level market fundamentals continue to suggest a global market that is in reasonable surplus. At the same time physical premia continue to slide ever closer to base cost levels in a market where there is no shortage of available of metal.