Commodity market report

Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2016

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Report summary

The monthly aluminium market service short term outlook provides a forecast of aluminium supply/demand fundamentals over the next two years. LME prices moved higher throughout the first half of August initially driven up by the release of Chinese PMI data showing a move above the 50 reading threshold between expansion and contraction. Prices received another push from a weaker US dollar as expectations of an early US interest rise receded. Prices hit a monthly peak of $1 690/t on 18th August before sliding back down towards the $1 620/t level by month end. The most recent statement from the US Fed seemed to suggest that rate rises were back on the agenda strengthening the dollar. While prices have found support above the $1 600/t level market fundamentals continue to suggest a global market that is in reasonable surplus. At the same time physical premia continue to slide ever closer to base cost levels in a market where there is no shortage of available of metal.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO August 2016.xls

    XLS 504.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2016

    PDF 626.81 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2016

    ZIP 797.67 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

Images

  • LME cash prices and cash-three month spreads (March-August 2016)
  • Global supply/demand balance, 2010-2018
  • China semis output and net trade
  • US imports of primary aluminium and aluminium alloys
  • Global benchmark aluminium premia
  • China’s output expected to resume its upward trend in the remaining months of 2016
  • China PMIs take divergent paths
  • Real estate investment split by source, Jan 2006 - June 2016
  • Automotive production and sales
  • Japanese semis shipment
  • Japanese housing starts
  • Taiwan output of aluminium sheet
  • SHFE/LME arbitrage for exports of semi fabricated products
  • North American shipments of FRP
  • North American shipments of extrusions
  • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
  • Chinese alumina imports, (kt)
  • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)

Tables

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • ROW growth offset by sluggish China output in July
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since July (kt)
  • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2015-2018, (kt)
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since July, (kt)
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

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