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Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2017

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31 August 2017

Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2017

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The bulls were firmly in charge during the past month. Prices rebounded strongly, driven by rising investor conviction that this time the Chinese authorities are serious about clamping down on illicit capacity and pollution control. Demand conditions remained broadly positive. While Chinese industrial production and leading indicators softened slightly in July, they were still in expansionary mode. This indicates that growth conditions remain supportive, at least for the third quarter. Elsewhere, despite the seasonal drag the positive short term outlook for European offtake remains intact. Industry contacts report firm activity across a range of end-use sectors and offsetting easing demand growth in North American markets. While demand growth in Asia ex-China is mixed, the overall direction remains positive.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China property sales, starts and completions
    • Japanese semis output
    • Summary of July production, kt
    • 2017 Smelter shutdowns (kt)
    • China smelter cuts and restarts in 2017
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since July, (kt)
    • Chinese alumina production (kt)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2016-2019, (kt)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 32 images and tables including:

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2010-2019
  • LME cash price and cash-3 month spreads
  • Index of LME cash prices (03 Jan 2017 = 100)
  • Aluminium cash prices versus the all-in price, Jan 2013-Aug 2017
  • Aluminium prices in local currency terms (Jan 2016 = 100)
  • Profitability of aluminium financing deals
  • China
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3
  • North American production of automotive sheet
  • Chinese exports of PSS and foil to the US
  • North American shipments of extrusions
  • Chinese exports of semis to the European Union
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Planned China refinery cuts in 2017, (kt)
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since July, (kt)
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO August 2017.xls

    XLS 521.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2017

    PDF 721.83 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2017

    ZIP 910.25 KB

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