Commodity market report
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30 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2016


Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2016

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Official cash prices have remained well above the $1700/t mark over the past six weeks, having started the year in the $1400-1500/t range. LME prices hit a 18-month high on 24th November as Chinese speculators came into the metals market having switched from property following Beijing’s clampdown on an overheating property sector. However, aluminium will likely end 2016 as the worst performer of all the LME metals. Even during the run-up in prices since late October the metal has been the laggard on an index basis. We expect prices to carry some of the momentum built since end-October into the first few months of 2017.


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2016 PDF - 644.19 KB 30 Pages, 13 Tables, 15 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO December 2016.xls XLS - 501.50 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
      • Revisions to China primary demand
    • Asia ex-China
    • Japan
    • Thailand
    • South Korea
  • Supply
    • China’s smelter capacity increases in 2016, ktpa
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since November, (kt)

In this report there are 28 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Global supply-demand balance, 2008-2020
    • Aluminium cash prices and the trade weighted dollar index (TWI)
    • Global benchmark premia
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • China manufacturing PMIs solidly in positive territory
    • China fixed asset investment (FAI) continues to show stabiity
    • China floor space (FS)
    • Japanese semis output
    • South Korea sheet and plate output and inventories
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Demand: Image 8
    • Demand: Image 9
  • Supply
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since November, (kt)
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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