The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Official cash prices have remained well above the $1700/t mark over the past six weeks, having started the year in the $1400-1500/t range. LME prices hit a 18-month high on 24th November as Chinese speculators came into the metals market having switched from property following Beijing’s clampdown on an overheating property sector. However, aluminium will likely end 2016 as the worst performer of all the LME metals. Even during the run-up in prices since late October the metal has been the laggard on an index basis. We expect prices to carry some of the momentum built since end-October into the first few months of 2017.