Commodity market report

Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2016

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Official cash prices have remained well above the $1700/t mark over the past six weeks, having started the year in the $1400-1500/t range. LME prices hit a 18-month high on 24th November as Chinese speculators came into the metals market having switched from property following Beijing’s clampdown on an overheating property sector. However, aluminium will likely end 2016 as the worst performer of all the LME metals. Even during the run-up in prices since late October the metal has been the laggard on an index basis. We expect prices to carry some of the momentum built since end-October into the first few months of 2017.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO December 2016.xls

    XLS 501.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2016

    PDF 644.19 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2016

    ZIP 809.92 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
      • Revisions to China primary demand
    • Asia ex-China
    • Japan
    • Thailand
    • South Korea
    • China’s smelter capacity increases in 2016, ktpa
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since November, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 28 images and tables including:


  • Global supply-demand balance, 2008-2020
  • Aluminium cash prices and the trade weighted dollar index (TWI)
  • Global benchmark premia
  • Japanese semis output
  • South Korea sheet and plate output and inventories
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 1
  • China manufacturing PMIs solidly in positive territory
  • China fixed asset investment (FAI) continues to show stabiity
  • China floor space (FS)


  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since November, (kt)
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

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