Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2017

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22 December 2017

Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2017

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The aluminium market hit a three week high at the end of December with the official LME price above the $2100/t level. Disappointment over the scale of the winter cuts in early December has given way in recent days to a bit more optimism following the release of November NBS output data, which points to a further contraction in Chinese smelter output. However, at current prices there are plenty of reasons for smelters in China and the World ex-China to pull the trigger on higher production. The risk to our 2018 base case forecast is skewed towards a bigger market surplus and lower than projected prices.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China
      • Japanese semis output
    • Taiwan
    • India
    • US
    • Europe
    • Summary of November production, kt
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Global supply - demand balance, 2010-2019
  • Global manufacturing PMI in expansionary mode
  • LME cash price and cash-3 month spreads
  • Global benchmark premia
  • Supply: Table 1
  • China total fixed asset investment (year-on-year) and infrastructure FAI (year-to-date)
  • Chinese economic activity remained in expansionary territory in November
  • Construction activity indicators
  • China total aluminium demand by major end-use sectors
  • Taiwan aluminium sheet output falls
  • India auto sales
  • Mexican imports of PSS
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Demand: Image 10
  • Demand: Image 11
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Demand: Image 5

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO December 2017.xls

    XLS 521.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2017

    PDF 851.98 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2017

    ZIP 1013.29 KB