Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 22 December 2022

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Report summary

It’s been a volatile year for the aluminium market. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, ongoing Covid issues in China, recessionary fears and continued supply-chain issues have dominated price direction. December was no exception. News of a further relaxation in China’s Covid containment policy drove the cash price to just under US$2500/t. However, the rally petered out on the near-term impact of slowing economic activity in China from escalating infection rates as well as hawkish comments by the US Fed following another interest rates rise. The scene is set for another volatile year for prices. Visible inventories remain at historically low levels while there are on-going risks to supply growth in China and Europe against the backdrop of lower power availability and high energy costs. An uncertain macroeconomic outlook will further add to aluminium market risk.

China
Asia ex-China
Europe
Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

Continued deterioration in manufacturing activity
Fixed asset investment (FAI) slowing
Construction activity at rock bottom

Auto output and sales fall on weak consumer sentiment
Japan domestic shipments of rolled and extruded products
German semis output tumbles
Summary of November production, kt
Germany aluminium production
Europe cuts (kt)
Global monthly output (annualised)
Power load and aluminium capacity of Guizhou smelters
Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
Spot alumina price
World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2021-2024, (kt)
China new alumina capacity in 2022 and 2023, ktpa
World ex-China alumina balance
China smelter grade alumina balance
Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
World ex-China alumina regions
Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
Global aluminium prices and premia
Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)