Commodity market report
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35 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2016


Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2016

Report summary

A technical driven rally lifted the official cash price to a high of just below $1,600/t in late February. Much of the price action was driven by short covering with the market in a cash-three month backwardation. The re-emergence of post New Year Chinese market activity also helped to underpin prices. Fundamentally, we do not believe much has changed between January and February. We continue to see a market that is effectively in balance but with a high overhang of inventory and risks weighed on the downside. Nevertheless, we believe that the price declines in early January, on the back of negative economic news out of China, were overdone. It would seem that with bad news priced into the market there has been something of a consolidation in the LME price in recent weeks. However, the fact that prices did not breakthrough the $1,600/t level suggests that the upside to the current price rally may be limited.


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2016 PDF - 685.09 KB 35 Pages, 16 Tables, 13 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO February 2016.xls XLS - 421.50 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
    • Asia ex-China
    • Africa
    • Europe
    • North America
    • South America
  • Supply
    • Alumina Market Developments

In this report there are 29 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Global supply – demand balance
    • Index of LME metal prices
    • Global aluminium premia
  • Demand
    • Chinese auto sales
    • Chinese extrusion exports
    • Japanese semis production
    • South Korean sheet and plate output and shipments
    • EU Imports of extrusions and foil
    • SHFE/LME arbitrage for downstream products
    • Brazilian car sales and production
    • Brazilian apparent consumption
  • Supply
    • China’s output indicate about 4Mt/a cut since June peak
    • Supply: Table 2
    • China capacity cuts and restarts since January 2015
    • Planned China smelter capacity additions in 2016
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since January (kt)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2014-2017, (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
    • China refinery closures in 2015, (kt)
    • China’s bauxite imports, (Mt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since January, (kt)
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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