Commodity market report
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29 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2017

Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2017

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The aluminium market has been enveloped in a bullish tone since the start of 2017. Hopes that Chinese production might be curtailed later in the year to reduce pollution, protests over the building of an aluminium products facility and better than expected Chinese demand in the first half of 2017 have all contributed to positive market sentiment. Prices at the end of February hit the $1900/t level and look likely to stay close to this level over the short term. Nevertheless, the global balance remains in a surplus, albeit lower than previously estimated, and we expect prices to soften as we enter the second quarter.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2017 PDF - 643.05 KB 29 Pages, 12 Tables, 15 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO February 2017.xls XLS - 504.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
    • Asia ex-China
    • Japan
      • Japanese semis output
    • North America
  • Supply
    • Alumina Market Developments
      • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
      • Changes in global SGA production estimates since January, (kt)

In this report there are 27 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Global supply-demand balance, 2010-2018
    • LME cash price and cash-3 month spreads
    • LME stocks in Asian warehouses (Mt)
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • Global aluminium premia
  • Demand
    • Manufacturing PMI
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Die-casting output surges
    • North American shipments of automotive sheet
    • US imports of sheets, plates and foil
    • North American shipments of extrusions
  • Supply
    • Supply: Table 1
    • China smelter curtailments and restarts
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Image 4
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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