The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two years. The aluminium market has been enveloped in a bullish tone since the start of 2017. Hopes that Chinese production might be curtailed later in the year to reduce pollution protests over the building of an aluminium products facility and better than expected Chinese demand in the first half of 2017 have all contributed to positive market sentiment. Prices at the end of February hit the $1900/t level and look likely to stay close to this level over the short term. Nevertheless the global balance remains in a surplus albeit lower than previously estimated and we expect prices to soften as we enter the second quarter.