Commodity market report

Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2017

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The aluminium market has been enveloped in a bullish tone since the start of 2017. Hopes that Chinese production might be curtailed later in the year to reduce pollution, protests over the building of an aluminium products facility and better than expected Chinese demand in the first half of 2017 have all contributed to positive market sentiment. Prices at the end of February hit the $1900/t level and look likely to stay close to this level over the short term. Nevertheless, the global balance remains in a surplus, albeit lower than previously estimated, and we expect prices to soften as we enter the second quarter.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO February 2017.xls

    XLS 504.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2017

    PDF 643.05 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2017

    ZIP 807.80 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:


  • Global supply-demand balance, 2010-2018
  • LME cash price and cash-3 month spreads
  • LME stocks in Asian warehouses (Mt)
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
  • Global aluminium premia
  • China smelter curtailments and restarts
  • Manufacturing PMI
  • North American shipments of automotive sheet
  • US imports of sheets, plates and foil
  • North American shipments of extrusions
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Die-casting output surges
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 4


  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

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