Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2022

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The LME price hit a record high on 24 February, with the official cash price breaching the US$3500/t level following the start of the Russian-Ukraine conflict. At the time of writing, the price had moved lower on long liquidation and profit taking. However, the wider market remains in a fluid state, with trading driven by unfolding events. The metals’ trading range at US$191/t on 24 February was the widest since October 2021 while volume, at 35,052 lots, was the highest since 19 April 2018, when sanctions on Rusal were imposed. The market is set for a period of high volatility amid fears that Russian metal exports could be the next target for western sanctions.