Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2022
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The LME price hit a record high on 24 February, with the official cash price breaching the US$3500/t level following the start of the Russian-Ukraine conflict. At the time of writing, the price had moved lower on long liquidation and profit taking. However, the wider market remains in a fluid state, with trading driven by unfolding events. The metals’ trading range at US$191/t on 24 February was the widest since October 2021 while volume, at 35,052 lots, was the highest since 19 April 2018, when sanctions on Rusal were imposed. The market is set for a period of high volatility amid fears that Russian metal exports could be the next target for western sanctions.
Table of contents
- China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 24 images and tables including:
- Slowdown in manufacturing activity
- Manufacturing activity picks up ahead of the Chinese New Year
- Chinese exports of semis to Europe
- US shipments of flat rolled products
- World ex-China cuts
- Power price by market
- Summary of January production, kt
- China aluminium actual and expected restarts in 2022, ktpa
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- Spot alumina price
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
- China alumina capacity cut in January and February, ktpa
- World ex-China alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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