Commodity market report
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32 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2016


Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2016

Report summary

Will December 2015 prove to be a pivotal month for the much needed rebalancing of supply and demand for the global aluminium market? A group of 14 major producers announced a series of capacity curtailments which will take around 4.3Mt of output offline according to our estimates, versus a report figure of 4.9Mt. Additionally, the smelters have pledged not to add new capacity for one year and to possibly stockpile up to 2Mt of aluminium. With our demand forecast broadly unchanged from last month, we now expect the global market to move towards balance over the next two years. However, we remain wary that previous cutback agreements have broken down as soon as SHFE prices moved higher. On this basis, we will continue to closely monitor the reality of the production cuts as 2016 progresses. Indeed, the immediate market reaction to the announcements has been less than enthusiastic, with LME quotes failing to breach the $1,500/t level at the time of writing.


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2016 PDF - 589.53 KB 32 Pages, 14 Tables, 13 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO January 2016.xls XLS - 422.00 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
    • Asia ex-China
      • Japanese semis output
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • North America
  • Supply
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since December (kt)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2014-2017, (kt)

In this report there are 27 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • LME price and spreads
    • Global supply-demand balance, 2008-2017
    • Primary metal imports to fill gap left by US production cuts in North America
    • Global benchmark premia
  • Demand
    • China property completions and starts slide in 2015
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Non-residential building starts declining
    • European car production
    • North American production of FRPs and extrusions
    • US and Canadians imports of FRPs from China
  • Supply
    • ROW output set to decline in H1 2016
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Table 4
    • China refinery closures in 2015, (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
    • China’s bauxite imports, (Mt)
    • Supply: Table 6
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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