Will December 2015 prove to be a pivotal month for the much needed rebalancing of supply and demand for the global aluminium market? A group of 14 major producers announced a series of capacity curtailments which will take around 4.3Mt of output offline according to our estimates, versus a report figure of 4.9Mt. Additionally, the smelters have pledged not to add new capacity for one year and to possibly stockpile up to 2Mt of aluminium. With our demand forecast broadly unchanged from last month, we now expect the global market to move towards balance over the next two years. However, we remain wary that previous cutback agreements have broken down as soon as SHFE prices moved higher. On this basis, we will continue to closely monitor the reality of the production cuts as 2016 progresses. Indeed, the immediate market reaction to the announcements has been less than enthusiastic, with LME quotes failing to breach the $1,500/t level at the time of writing.
This report includes 2 file(s)
Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2016 PDF - 589.53 KB 32 Pages, 14 Tables, 13 Figures
Data tables aluminium STO January 2016.xls XLS - 422.00 KB
As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.
This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.
Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.
From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.
We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.
Wood Mackenzie's clients include every major player in the global energy, metals and mining industries. We are recognised as a leading authority by international and national energy, metals and mining companies, leading financial institutions, governments and government agencies. We work with a range of diverse teams within our clients, from strategy and policy makers, business developers and market analysts, through to corporate finance, risk teams and investors.
Having Wood Mac analysis is table-stakes. Others are nice to have.
Analyst Metal Mining Producer
Wood Mac has the highest quality data and is demanded by our staff.
Portfolio Manager Integrated Oil Company
Others can provide data but we value the quality of the Wood Mac analysis above other sources.
Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.
We work across every sector of oil, gas, power,renewables,chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.
Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.
At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.
Commodity market report | Jan 2016
Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2016
Have questions?Just let us know how to contact you and we will respond to you as soon as possible.