The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two years. A US WTO complaint against the Chinese aluminium industry and discussions in China over the possibility of output cuts drove the LME price to $1883/t in January a 20 month high. We believe that the run up in prices is overdone and expect prices to retreat from current quotes over the coming months. Fundamentally our 2017 outlook for the global balance has changed little over the past few months. We expect output to accelerate as China adds new capacity and reactivates more idled production and will more than outweigh reasonable gains in demand.