Commodity market report

Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2017

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. A US WTO complaint against the Chinese aluminium industry and discussions in China over the possibility of output cuts drove the LME price to $1883/t in January, a 20 month high. We believe that the run-up in prices is overdone and expect prices to retreat from current quotes over the coming months. Fundamentally, our 2017 outlook for the global balance has changed little over the past few months. We expect output to accelerate as China adds new capacity and reactivates more idled production and will more than outweigh reasonable gains in demand.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO January 2017.xls

    XLS 504.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2017

    PDF 691.52 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2017

    ZIP 850.35 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China
    • Asia ex-China
    • Japan
    • North America
    • China’s smelter capacity increases in 2016, ktpa
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since December, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:


  • Index of LME cash prices; 01 November 2016 = 100
  • LME cash price and cash to 3 month spreads
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2010-2018
  • Spread between US and European premia widening since September 2016
  • China fixed asset investment
  • Chinese auto production and sales
  • Japanese semis output
  • North American shipment of extrusions
  • North American production of automotive sheet
  • Chinese exports of semis into EU 28
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)


  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

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