Commodity market report

Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2018

Loading current market price

Get this report

Loading current market price

Get this report as part of a subscription

Enquire about subscriptions

Already have subscription? Sign In

Further information

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

  • An error has occurred while getting captcha image
For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
 

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Aluminium prices ended 2017 on a high, pushing above $2200/t on the last trading day of the year. The average LME cash price for 2017 recorded a 23% increase over the previous year, the strongest annual increase since 2010. A weak U.S dollar, tight rules on China replacement capacity and a constructive global economic background, for now, suggest prices will average above $2100/t in the first half of 2018. We now see a deeper global deficit in 2018 and 2019 than previously, despite a downgrade to Chinese primary metal demand.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO January 2018.xls

    XLS 534.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2018

    PDF 840.31 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2018

    ZIP 1020.24 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
      • Japanese semis output
    • South Korea
    • India
    • US
    • Europe
    • Summary of December production, kt
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

Images

  • LME cash price and cash to three month spreads
  • LME cash price and the U.S. dollar effective exchange rate
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2011-2020
  • U.S. Midwest versus European duty paid
  • China PMIs point to still firm short-term growth
  • Fixed asset investment (FAI), Jan 2013 - Dec 2017
  • China urban residential housing inventory, 30 cities
  • Domestic shipments of sheet and plate surge
  • China dominates South Korean imports of rolled products
  • Scrap imports rise after India increases import duties on primary aluminium
  • North American shipments of FRPs
  • SHFE/LME arbitrage for downstream products
  • US imports of PSS and foil products from China
  • EU28 imports of downstream products from China
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 4

Tables

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

You may be interested in

    
            
            
            
            
    

Questions about this report?

    • Europe:
      +44 131 243 4699
    • Americas:
      +1 713 470 1900
    • Asia Pacific:
      +61 2 8224 8898