Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2018

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31 January 2018

Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2018

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Aluminium prices ended 2017 on a high, pushing above $2200/t on the last trading day of the year. The average LME cash price for 2017 recorded a 23% increase over the previous year, the strongest annual increase since 2010. A weak U.S dollar, tight rules on China replacement capacity and a constructive global economic background, for now, suggest prices will average above $2100/t in the first half of 2018. We now see a deeper global deficit in 2018 and 2019 than previously, despite a downgrade to Chinese primary metal demand.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China
      • Japanese semis output
    • South Korea
    • India
    • US
    • Europe
    • Summary of December production, kt
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • LME cash price and cash to three month spreads
  • LME cash price and the U.S. dollar effective exchange rate
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2011-2020
  • U.S. Midwest versus European duty paid
  • China PMIs point to still firm short-term growth
  • Fixed asset investment (FAI), Jan 2013 - Dec 2017
  • China urban residential housing inventory, 30 cities
  • Domestic shipments of sheet and plate surge
  • China dominates South Korean imports of rolled products
  • Scrap imports rise after India increases import duties on primary aluminium
  • North American shipments of FRPs
  • SHFE/LME arbitrage for downstream products
  • US imports of PSS and foil products from China
  • EU28 imports of downstream products from China
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Demand: Image 4

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO January 2018.xls

    XLS 534.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2018

    PDF 840.31 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2018

    ZIP 1020.24 KB