Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 January 2022

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Having hit a low of US$2600/t in the first week of December, the official LME cash price moved US$200/t higher by the end of 2021. Since then the price has been on a sharp upward trajectory, propelled by more primary metal cuts in Europe, a solid return to demand growth and rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine. At the time of writing the price was trading either side of US$3100/t. The tightness in metal availability saw the cash to three-month spread moving from a US$18/t contango in early January to a US$24/t backwardation at month-end. The market is set for a period of high prices and mounting uncertainty.

China
Europe
North America
Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

Investment growth slipping except for manufacturing
Manufacturing activity picks up ahead of the Chinese New Year
Retail sales continue to slide

Property market weakness triggers monetary stimulus
EU imports of PSS from China
US shipments of flat rolled products
Power price by market
Europe smelting cuts
Alro power supplier
Summary of December production, kt
Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
Ireland alumina exports 2021
Spot alumina price
World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
Potential production loss at Shandong and Henan refineries
World ex-China alumina balance
China smelter grade alumina balance
Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
World ex-China alumina regions
Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
Global aluminium prices and premia
Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)