Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 January 2023

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Report summary

China’s abrupt U-turn on Covid restrictions and a slightly brighter near-term outlook for the European economy dominated metals market sentiment in January. The bearishness seen in the market in the final week of December quickly dissipated and giving way to a turnaround in sentiment as China added detail to its exit from lockdowns. Expectations of a recovery in economic activity and better demand growth drove the official LME cash price from a month low of US$2242/t on 4 January to US$2605/t on 25 January before pulling back slightly at the time of writing. At the same time, data from Europe suggested that the slowdown in economic activity was not as bad as had been initially feared.

China
Asia ex-China
- Japan
Europe
North America
Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 34 images and tables including:

Retail sales improve on easing Covid restrictions
Manufacturing activity slows as China lifts Covid restrictions
Property sector activity ends 2022 with a whimper

All eyes on infrastructure investment in 2023
Turkish imports of primary aluminium from Iran and Russia
Chinese PSS exports to EU collapse
Turkish semis exports to EU take-off
German semis output tumbles in Q4.
US and Canada shipments of rolled products
Summary of December production, kt
Latin America smelter plans
European power prices
Norway and Sweden power prices
Global monthly output (annualised)
Power load and aluminium capacity of Guizhou smelters
Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
Alcoa Kwinana gas consumption
Spot alumina price
Western Australian refineries' gas consumption
World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2022-2025, (kt)
China's new alumina capacity in 2022 and 2023, ktpa
World ex-China alumina balance
China smelter grade alumina balance
Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
World ex-China alumina regions
Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
Global aluminium prices and premia
Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Japan domestic shipments of rolled and extruded products