Commodity market report
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33 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2016

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2016

Report summary

Since the end of Q1 LME prices have broadly found support above $1,500/t and indeed during late April and the past month have traded well above the $1,600/t level. Since the start of this year the LME cash price has gained 8% in value with other LME metals such as zinc and nickel posting high double digit gains. Does this rise in prices represent the start of a turnaround in the market in second half of 2016 and beyond? We assess the three main drivers of better prices in H1 (lower visible inventories, producer discipline and better than expected demand in China) and contend that they are unlikely to resonate again in H2.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2016 PDF - 679.95 KB 33 Pages, 13 Tables, 18 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO July 2016.xls XLS - 504.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
    • Asia ex-China
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • Middle East
    • North America
    • Europe
  • Supply
    • Alumina Market Developments

In this report there are 31 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • LME cash prices and cash - three month spreads (March - July 2016)
    • US$ strength in second half of July drags LME prices lower
    • Global supply/demand balance, 2010 - 2018
    • Global benchmark premia (January 2011 - July 2016
  • Demand
    • Fixed asset investment growth
    • China home sales, starts and completions (floor space)
    • Japanese semis output
    • South Korean sheet and plate production and shipment
    • GCC contract awards in first half of the year (US$Bn)
    • Middle East aluminium demand, 2004 - 2018 (kt)
    • US and European billet premia
    • US imports of aluminium alloys
    • Mexican imports of aluminium semis
    • UK trade in semis products
  • Supply
    • Asian growth to maintain upward trend in ROW output numbers
    • China’s smelter projects implementation schedule, (kt/a)
    • China’s output expected to continue its trek higher in the remaining months of 2016
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since June (kt)
    • Chinese alumina imports, (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2015-2018, (kt)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since June, (kt)
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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