Commodity market report
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34 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2017

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2017

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Market sentiment continues to swing between two polar opposites – that China will cut significant operating capacity or that nothing much has really changed. We believe that the reality is somewhere in the middle. Some capacity may well have been halted in recent weeks with a view to meet the required regulations. But the jury is still out on the winter pollution related cutbacks. Smelter operators will no doubt point out the irony of halting low cost efficient capacity while older less efficient operations continue to produce. The robustness and accuracy of official Chinese production data also adds a further problem to our calculations. We expect to get better clarity on this as 2017 progresses and as we carry out on the ground research.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2017 PDF - 1.09 MB 34 Pages, 15 Tables, 16 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO July 2017.xls XLS - 521.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
      • Japanese semis output
      • India
  • Supply
    • Summary of June production, kt
    • 2017 Smelter shutdowns (kt)
    • Chinese alumina production (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2016-2019, (kt)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since June, (kt)

In this report there are 31 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Global supply-demand balance, 2010-2019
    • LME cash prices and cash-3 month spreads, July 2016 - July 2017
    • Trade weighted US dollar index versus the LME cash price
    • LME forward curve
    • Return from aluminium financing versus LME inventory
  • Demand
    • Chinese manufacturing PMI's rebound in June
    • China property sector showing signs of life
    • Non-Tier 1 city housing market shows some resilience
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Chinese exports of extrusions
    • Indian vehicle production
    • North American shipments of can sheet
    • Chine exports of FRPs and extrusions int the EU
  • Supply
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since June, (kt)
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Table 6
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Supply: Table 7
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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