Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2017



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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Market sentiment continues to swing between two polar opposites – that China will cut significant operating capacity or that nothing much has really changed. We believe that the reality is somewhere in the middle. Some capacity may well have been halted in recent weeks with a view to meet the required regulations. But the jury is still out on the winter pollution related cutbacks. Smelter operators will no doubt point out the irony of halting low cost efficient capacity while older less efficient operations continue to produce. The robustness and accuracy of official Chinese production data also adds a further problem to our calculations. We expect to get better clarity on this as 2017 progresses and as we carry out on the ground research.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO July 2017.xls

    XLS 521.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2017

    PDF 1.09 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2017

    ZIP 1.26 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
      • Japanese semis output
      • India
    • Summary of June production, kt
    • 2017 Smelter shutdowns (kt)
    • Chinese alumina production (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2016-2019, (kt)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since June, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 31 images and tables including:


  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since June, (kt)
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)


  • Global supply-demand balance, 2010-2019
  • LME cash prices and cash-3 month spreads, July 2016 - July 2017
  • Trade weighted US dollar index versus the LME cash price
  • LME forward curve
  • Return from aluminium financing versus LME inventory
  • Chinese manufacturing PMI's rebound in June
  • China property sector showing signs of life
  • Non-Tier 1 city housing market shows some resilience
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Chinese exports of extrusions
  • Indian vehicle production
  • North American shipments of can sheet
  • Chine exports of FRPs and extrusions int the EU

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