Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2021
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Resilient demand and supply disruptions will result in a small deficit in the global balance in 2021. This is price supportive with LME quotes now comfortably trading above the US$2550/t level. At the time of writing, news of curbs on power consumption at Chinese smelters in Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou has pushed the LME price above $2600/t while the ShFE settlement price hit an 11 year high at just below the RMB10,000/t level. However, higher metal supply and softer demand growth should pull prices lower over the next two years.
Table of contents
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 27 images and tables including:
- Favourable ShFE-LME arbitrage and firm demand driving aluminium imports
- Manufacturing activity eases in June
- Fixed asset investment slowing
- Slowing investment suggests a lower growth trajectory in H2 2021
- Property market growth easing
- Japanese production of semis
- US shipments of flat-rolled products
- US shipments of extrusions
- Summary of June production, kt
- China restarts (kt)
- Global annualised output rates
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- Spot alumina price US$/t
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
- China refinery cuts
- World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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