Commodity market report
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31 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2016

Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2016

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. For much of June LME prices were very much in consolidation mode as price dips triggered consumer buying only to be met with producer selling on any rebound. Tighter spreads mid-month finally settled prices above the $1.600/t mark. The big shock to markets came towards month-end as the UK voted unexpectedly to leave the EU. Market sentiment remains fragile, driven by political events post-Brexit and uncertainty surrounding the full economic impact of the decision moving forward. At a fundamental level our latest assessment shows a rising global metal surplus over the next few years.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2016 PDF - 603.66 KB 31 Pages, 12 Tables, 21 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO June 2016.xls XLS - 504.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
    • Asia ex-China
    • Japan
    • Taiwan
    • Europe
  • Supply

In this report there are 33 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Regional contribution to global base metals demand, 2016
    • Regional contribution to global GDP (2005$), 2016
    • Primary aluminium consumption by region, 2016
    • LME cash prices and cash - three month spreads (Feb - June 2016)
    • Changes in the global metal balance forecast, Jan 2016 vs June 2016
    • Global supply/demand balance, 2008 - 2020
    • LME aluminium forward curve
    • Global aluminium premia
  • Demand
    • Fixed asset investment growth
    • SUV share in total passenger car
    • China home sales, starts and completions (floor space)
    • Japanese semis shipments
    • Taiwan sheet output and inventory
    • Chinese exports of rolled products to the US
    • SHFE/LME arbitrage
    • European automotive sheet capacity
  • Supply
    • China’s output creeping higher
    • Asian growth to maintain upward trend in ROW output numbers
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since May (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
    • Global alumina C1 cost 2013 and 2016, ($/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2015-2018, (kt)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since May, (kt)
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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