Commodity market report

Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2017

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Report summary

In recent weeks, investors have grown sceptical of the potential price impact of environmental related production cuts following firm growth in Chinese production. High SHFE prices have incentivised Chinese smelters to boost production by 11% between January and May year to date. As a result, LME cash prices consolidated during June staying below $1900/t level for the large part of the month. During the last week of June prices touched $1855/t, falling to the lowest level since mid-March. In the absence of more definite producer discipline coming out of China we expect LME prices to ease towards the $1800/t level in the second half of 2017. That said, prices could well turn in the opposite direction if the protectionist measures against Chinese exports and output restraint due to an unauthorised new capacity and pollution related cutbacks take place.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO June 2017.xls

    XLS 521.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2017

    PDF 687.98 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2017

    ZIP 857.72 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China EV production
    • Japanese semis output
    • Summary of May production, kt
    • China new smelter capacity in 2017
    • Chinese new refinery startup schedule in 2017, (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2016-2019, (kt)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since May, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 28 images and tables including:

Images

  • Global supply/demand balance, 2010-2019
  • Chinese exports of PSS, foil and extrusions
  • LME cash price and cash-3 month spreads
  • Global aluminium premiums
  • China
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4
  • North American production of automotive sheet
  • North American shipments of cansheet
  • European billet premia
  • China export arbitrage
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2

Tables

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since May, (kt)
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

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