Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2021
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The official LME cash price fell to a month-low of US$2353/t as US inflation fears gripped market sentiment, driving up the US dollar. However, prices recouped their earlier losses and bounced back to over US$2500/t at the of the month. Near-term price direction will be influenced by how successful the Chinese stockpile sale is in moving prices lower and by the Russian export tax on aluminium. We think the former will have little effect while the latter could lift prices towards the US$2600/t level.
Table of contents
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 23 images and tables including:
- Manufacturing activity stabilising
- Stimulus effects starting to wear off
- Property market activity easing
- Japanese production of semis
- SHFE/LME arbitrage for Chinese exports of rolled products to the EU
- US shipments of flat-rolled products
- Summary of May production, kt
- Global annualised output rates
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- Spot alumina price US$/t
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
- World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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