Commodity market report
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29 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2016

Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2016

Report summary

Over the past three months we have been cautiously optimistic that the worst of the global oversupply of aluminium was behind us. Our numbers suggested that if output cutbacks held steady and that demand conditions did not deteriorate significantly, then we may start to see a more balanced market, certainly through to end-2017. However, a further downgrade to short term demand growth prospects together with some signs that producer resolve, particularly in China, to maintain output cuts could be waning suggests a market balance that will likely move to surplus over the next couple of years. We project prices to remain well below the $1,800/t level on an average annual basis through to 2018.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2016 PDF - 566.19 KB 29 Pages, 13 Tables, 11 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO March 2016.xls XLS - 437.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
    • Asia ex-China
    • Japan
      • Japanese housing starts
    • North America
      • US extrusion shipments
    • Europe
  • Supply
    • China’s output indicate about 4Mt/a cut since June peak
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since February(kt)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2015-2018, (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)

In this report there are 24 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Global aluminium premia
  • Demand
    • China home sales, starts and completions (floor space)
    • Japanese semis output
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Demand: Image 5
  • Supply
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Planned China smelter capacity additions in 2016
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Supply: Image 1
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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