Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2021
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Firm physical demand, exaggerated movements of inventories in LME warehouses’ logistical bottlenecks and concerns over future Chinese production, propelled the intra-day LME price to within touching distance of US$2300/t – a level not seen since Q2 2018. While some positive market developments will be transitory, others could become more entrenched over the next few years.
Table of contents
- China
- Japan
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 27 images and tables including:
- As expected, economic activity moderates in the first two months of the year
- Surge in generation and grid investment in early 2021
- Credit tightening will likely lower construction activity in H2
- Chinese exports of aluminium semis to the EU 27
- European billet premia vs ingot premia
- US shipments of flat-rolled products
- Summary of February production, kt
- Global annualised output rates
- Inner Mongolia smelter cuts
- China’s smelter capacity increases in 2021, ktpa
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- Spot alumina price, US$/t
- China alumina imports (kt)
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
- China’s new alumina capacity, ktpa
- World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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