Commodity market report
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30 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2016

Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2016

Report summary

Aluminium prices were in correction mode during May. Comments by the US Federal Reserve, that interest rate hikes are still very much front of mind, pushed LME price slower on dollar strength. At the same time, the outlook for demand growth in China and Europe turned negative with a series of weak economic data releases counterbalancing market optimism a month-ago. Prices slipped from a high of $1,673/t on 29th April to a low of $1,526/t on 23rd May. Revisions to our supply and demand estimates suggests a market that will remain in reasonable surplus over the next three years. Any improvement to market fundamentals will require further Chinese producer restraint on top of maintaining the curtailments already made. However, we remain wary that at current SHFE prices the temptation to reactivate capacity may well be too much for some producers, leaving the market vulnerable to a larger than forecast surplus.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2016 PDF - 655.21 KB 30 Pages, 13 Tables, 17 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO May 2016.xls XLS - 496.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
      • China home sales, starts and completions (floor space)
      • China car sales
  • Supply
    • China smelter shutdowns and re-starts from Jan 2015, (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)

In this report there are 30 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply/demand balance, 2012 - 2018
    • LME cash prices and cash - three month spreads (Jan - May 2016)
    • Aluminium cash prices and the Trade Weighted Dollar Index
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Demand: Image 4
    • North American share of primary aluminium in castings
    • Demand: Image 6
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Demand: Image 8
    • Chinese exports of semis to EU28
    • European car production
    • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply
    • China’s April output signals a move to higher run rates
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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