Commodity market report

Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2017

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. A reduction in the near term global aluminium surplus has been a recurring theme over the first five months of 2017. Our latest iteration of market fundamentals maintains this trend, pointing to a further decline in the market surplus over the next couple of years. This is before we have factored in any major disruptions to supply in China due to possible pollution related cutbacks later this year. If China fully implements these cutbacks from mid-November onwards our modest projected surplus for flips to a deficit in 2018 and 2019.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO May 2017.xls

    XLS 520.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2017

    PDF 654.74 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2017

    ZIP 840.06 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 29 images and tables including:


  • Global supply/demand balance, 2010-2019
  • SHFE/LME spreads widen since end 2016
  • LME cash price and cash-3 month spreads
  • US imports of primary aluminium
  • Demand: Image 1
  • China excavator output growth
  • China homes sales, starts and completions
  • China extrusion exports decline
  • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
  • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Sectoral demand for castings
  • Secondary versus primary use of aluminium in foundry
  • US scrap exports to China


  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Summary of April production, kt
  • China new smelter capacity in 2017
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since April, (kt)
  • Chinese refinery shutdown in 2017, (kt)
  • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2016-2019, (kt)
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since April, (kt)
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

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