The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two years. A reduction in the near term global aluminium surplus has been a recurring theme over the first five months of 2017. Our latest iteration of market fundamentals maintains this trend pointing to a further decline in the market surplus over the next couple of years. This is before we have factored in any major disruptions to supply in China due to possible pollution related cutbacks later this year. If China fully implements these cutbacks from mid November onwards our modest projected surplus for flips to a deficit in 2018 and 2019.