Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 May 2023

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Report summary

The LME cash price hit a fresh 2023 low on 23 May, falling to below US$2200/t in intra-day trading. Supply demand fundamentals remain tight but if it wasn't for the slow progress in smelter restarts, the market would be in surplus. We lowered our 2023 global demand growth forecast to 2.1%, from 2.7% previously, with risk still skewed to the downside. The most significant downgrade has been to the outlook for China, where economic indicators fail to impress. The near-term outlook for European demand has also deteriorated with news that Germany was in a technical recession in Q1.

China
Asia ex-China
- Japan
Europe
North America
Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

Manufacturing activity slips
State owned enterprises driving fixed asset investment
Automotive sales and output growth surges year-on-year in April but from a very low 2022 base

Property sales and starts remain weak
European manufacturing activity remains weak
Lack of existing homes for sale drives recovery in new home sales
US and Canadian shipments of rolled products
US and Canadian shipments of extrusions
Summary of April production, kt
World ex-China cuts
World ex-China, ktpd
Yunnan aluminium capacity, ktpa
Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
Spot alumina price
EGA’s alumina requirement
World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2022-2025, (kt)
Major suppliers and consumers in China’s third-party alumina market, kt
World ex-China alumina balance
China smelter grade alumina balance
Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
World ex-China alumina regions
Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
Global aluminium prices and premia
Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Production of rolled and extruded products