Commodity market report
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34 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2015

Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2015

Report summary

2015 is shaping up to be a year which ends more on a whimper than a bang as far as LME prices are concerned. Prices are currently trading at sub $1,500/t levels and have been there for pretty much most of November. On a slightly positive note, we are now starting to see some movement towards production adjustment, particularly in North America and China. However, the market remains wary over the exact amount of metal that is being taken out of the market amid the still continued build in new capacity, especially in China. Consequently, LME prices remain desensitised to any developments on production curtailments. We continue to project a well supplied market over the next two years with prices remaining at bargain basement levels.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2015 PDF - 659.49 KB 34 Pages, 14 Tables, 18 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO November 2015.xls XLS - 422.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
    • Asia ex-China
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • North America
  • Supply
    • Alumina Market Developments

In this report there are 32 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Cutbacks fail to inspire any sustained price rally
    • Higher LME price volatility suggests a rise in risk aversion
    • Global supply demand balance
    • Global aluminium premia
  • Demand
    • China semis production
    • China property completions on the rise
    • Japanese semis shipments decline
    • Japanese housing starts
    • Taiwan sheet shipment
    • South Korean sheet shipments improve
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Chinese exports of FRP to the EU 28
    • North American shipments of FRP
    • Imports of Chinese FRPs into the US and Canada
    • North American shipments of extrusions
  • Supply
    • October may prove to be a short term top in ROW output
    • China smelter shutdowns in 2015
    • Changes in China's smelter capacity completion schedule since May 2015 (kt/a)
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since October (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices (fob $/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2014-2017, (kt)
    • Chinese alumina production in 2015
    • Malaysia’s bauxite shipment to China moderated in October (Mt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since October, (kt)
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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