The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two years. Official LME cash prices rallied sharply over the past five weeks hitting 19 month high of $1 776/t on 11 November. The latest rally in prices began well before the US election outcome driven by the release of positive Chinese October PMI data. A more positive outlook for Chinese demand during LME Week further added fuel to the rally. The Trump victory in the US election and the promise of a large scale infrastructural spending programme further pulled base metals prices higher. More recently the likelihood of an OPEC deal on output restraint and higher oil prices has further galvanised prices. Nevertheless we contend that underlying fundamentals over the next two years have changed little with a continue build in the global surplus. At current elevated levels the risk of a near term price correction is growing.