Commodity market report

Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2016

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Official LME cash prices rallied sharply over the past five weeks hitting 19 month high of $1,776/t on 11 November. The latest rally in prices began well before the US election outcome, driven by the release of positive Chinese October PMI data. A more positive outlook for Chinese demand during LME Week further added fuel to the rally. The Trump victory in the US election and the promise of a large scale infrastructural spending programme further pulled base metals prices higher. More recently, the likelihood of an OPEC deal on output restraint and higher oil prices has further galvanised prices. Nevertheless, we contend that underlying fundamentals over the next two years have changed little with a continue build in the global surplus. At current elevated levels the risk of a near term price correction is growing.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO November 2016.xls

    XLS 504.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2016

    PDF 640.87 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2016

    ZIP 816.74 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
      • China auto production and sales
    • Asia ex-China
      • Japanese semis output
    • Europe
    • China’s smelter capacity increases in 2016, ktpa
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since October, (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2015-2018, (kt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since October, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 31 images and tables including:


  • LME cash price and cash-three month spreads
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2008-2020
  • Index of LME base metals prices (1st June = 100)
  • US imports of primary ingot
  • LME aluminium forward curve
  • Chinese semis exports to Vietnam
  • Mexico bars, rods and profiles exports to Vietnam
  • Export of primary aluminium and alloys to Turkey
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Demand: Image 1
  • China home sales, starts and completions (floor space)
  • Regional Chalco prices for aluminium ingot
  • Demand: Image 6
  • North American production of NHT and automotive sheet
  • Demand: Image 8


  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

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