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Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2017

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30 November 2017

Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2017

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Having reached a multi-year official high at $2188/t on 1 November, LME prices remained comfortably above the $2100/t level in the first week of the month before sliding lower. The reversal in price direction began as news filtered through that the scale of the winter cutbacks in China would not be as significant as the market had been expecting. It is increasingly likely that Weiqiao will not cut any additional output during the winter above the 2.68 Mt it was ordered to cut due to illegal capacity. But our latest estimate for output lost due only to the winter cuts between mid November 2017 and mid March 2018 is 260 kt, which by itself not significant set against total Chinese output. What is more important are the cuts to illegal capacity and the build in new capacity over the next few years.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China
      • Japanese semis output
    • South Korea
    • India
    • Brazil
    • Europe
    • Summary of October production, kt
    • China smelter cuts and restarts in 2017 (excluding winter cuts)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2016-2019, (kt)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 29 images and tables including:

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2016-2020
  • LME cash price and cash-three month spreads, November 2016 - November 2017
  • Global benchmark premia
  • Profitability of aluminium financing deals
  • China PMIs point to moderating growth near-term
  • China land sales (millions square meters)
  • Aluminium can body and end stock consumption
  • South Korea automotive production
  • Brazilian car production and sales
  • European consumption and production of automotive sheet
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Planned China new capacity refinery projects in 2017, (kt)
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Demand: Image 4

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO November 2017.xls

    XLS 522.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2017

    PDF 707.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2017

    ZIP 875.64 KB

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