The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Having reached a multi-year official high at $2188/t on 1 November, LME prices remained comfortably above the $2100/t level in the first week of the month before sliding lower. The reversal in price direction began as news filtered through that the scale of the winter cutbacks in China would not be as significant as the market had been expecting. It is increasingly likely that Weiqiao will not cut any additional output during the winter above the 2.68 Mt it was ordered to cut due to illegal capacity. But our latest estimate for output lost due only to the winter cuts between mid November 2017 and mid March 2018 is 260 kt, which by itself not significant set against total Chinese output. What is more important are the cuts to illegal capacity and the build in new capacity over the next few years.