Commodity market report
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33 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2015

Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2015

Report summary

There seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel as far as the aluminium market is concerned. While copper and zinc have some fundamentally positive short term trends to look forward to, the outlook for aluminium, in contrast, remains mired in oversupply with no producer discipline in sight. At the time of writing, the LME cash price was down 8% since the start of October, 21% lower since the start of 2015 and 28% below the year ago level. We expect nearby prices to remain under significant pressure as the market searches out a price level at which enough pain will flush out sufficient capacity either in China or the ROW. With demand growth just about ticking over and likely to soften as we move forward, producers in the ROW continue to keep capacity under review but not actually cutting output. We could well see prices move towards the $1,400/t mark over the very short term.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2015 PDF - 636.83 KB 33 Pages, 13 Tables, 17 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO October 2015.xls XLS - 421.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Index of LME prices (Q3 Jan 2012 = 100)
    • Supply - demand balance, 2008 - 2017
  • Demand
    • China
    • India
      • India imports of unwrought aluminium
    • Europe
    • North America
      • Share of US imports of unwrought aluminium alloys by volume (kt)
      • Mexican imports of primary aluminium
      • Mexican imports of unwrought aluminium alloys
  • Supply
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since September(kt)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2014-2017, (kt)
    • Strong Chinese alumina production in 2015
    • Malaysia’s bauxite shipment to China shot higher in September (Mt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since September, (kt)

In this report there are 30 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
    • LME Cash to 3 month spread vs European duty-paid premia
    • Profitability of aluminium financing
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • China property starts and sales
    • China extrusions export
    • China FRP exports
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Demand: Image 6
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Demand: Image 8
    • Demand: Image 9
    • Demand: Image 10
    • Demand: Image 11
  • Supply
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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