There seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel as far as the aluminium market is concerned. While copper and zinc have some fundamentally positive short term trends to look forward to, the outlook for aluminium, in contrast, remains mired in oversupply with no producer discipline in sight. At the time of writing, the LME cash price was down 8% since the start of October, 21% lower since the start of 2015 and 28% below the year ago level. We expect nearby prices to remain under significant pressure as the market searches out a price level at which enough pain will flush out sufficient capacity either in China or the ROW. With demand growth just about ticking over and likely to soften as we move forward, producers in the ROW continue to keep capacity under review but not actually cutting output. We could well see prices move towards the $1,400/t mark over the very short term.
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Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2015 PDF - 636.83 KB 33 Pages, 13 Tables, 17 Figures
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Commodity market report | Oct 2015
Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2015
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