Commodity market report

Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2016

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Report summary

TThe aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. LME cash prices finally rallied through the $1,700/t level having tested just below levels for much of the past six weeks. A weaker US dollar and renewed investor interest across all LME base metals were the main drivers for this move. However, very little has changed at a fundamental level. We continue to see rising Chinese output, both restarts and new builds, while global demand growth is expect to remain tepid over the next couple of years. We project the market supply-demand balance to register another few years of comfortable surpluses.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO October 2016.xls

    XLS 504.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2016

    PDF 647.61 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2016

    ZIP 818.90 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China
    • Japan
    • Europe
    • China’s September spurt signals synchronized global output growth in the near term
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since September, (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2015-2018, (kt)
    • China’s bauxite imports, (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 33 images and tables including:


  • Global supply-demand balance 2010-2018
  • China smelter margin (self generation and purchased power)
  • LME cash prices and spreads
  • Global benchmark premia
  • Aluminium financing profitability and LME stocks.
  • LME forward curve
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Chinese auto production and sales
  • China home sales, starts and completions (floor space)
  • Japanese shipments of semis
  • US house starts
  • North American share of imported PSS as a proportion of NHT production
  • US imports of FRPs from China
  • Sales of Ford F-150
  • North American shipments of automotive sheet
  • North American production and consumption of automotive sheet
  • European supply and demand for automotive sheet
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 4


  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Aluminium-related plans in China's 13th five-year plan for non-ferrous metals
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since September, (kt)
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

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