Commodity market report
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34 Pages

Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2016

Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2016

Report summary

TThe aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. LME cash prices finally rallied through the $1,700/t level having tested just below levels for much of the past six weeks. A weaker US dollar and renewed investor interest across all LME base metals were the main drivers for this move. However, very little has changed at a fundamental level. We continue to see rising Chinese output, both restarts and new builds, while global demand growth is expect to remain tepid over the next couple of years. We project the market supply-demand balance to register another few years of comfortable surpluses.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2016 PDF - 647.61 KB 34 Pages, 13 Tables, 20 Figures
  • Data tables aluminium STO October 2016.xls XLS - 504.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
    • Japan
    • Europe
  • Supply
    • China’s September spurt signals synchronized global output growth in the near term
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since September, (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2015-2018, (kt)
    • China’s bauxite imports, (Mt)

In this report there are 33 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Global supply-demand balance 2010-2018
    • China smelter margin (self generation and purchased power)
    • LME cash prices and spreads
    • Global benchmark premia
    • Aluminium financing profitability and LME stocks.
    • LME forward curve
  • Demand
    • Aluminium-related plans in China's 13th five-year plan for non-ferrous metals
    • Chinese auto production and sales
    • China home sales, starts and completions (floor space)
    • Japanese shipments of semis
    • US house starts
    • North American share of imported PSS as a proportion of NHT production
    • US imports of FRPs from China
    • Sales of Ford F-150
    • North American shipments of automotive sheet
    • North American production and consumption of automotive sheet
    • European supply and demand for automotive sheet
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Image 4
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since September, (kt)
    • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Global alumina production (kt)
    • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
    • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
    • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
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