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Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2017

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30 October 2017

Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2017

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The LME price raced to a 2017 high of $2215/t on October 26, the highest level since March 2012 when the price hit $2362/t. The official cash price broke through the $2100/t resistance level during the final week of September from where it has continued to build strength. Aluminium has retained its position as one of the best performing metals on the LME during 2017, dipping just below zinc in the final few weeks of October. Much of the recent rise in base metals prices can be attributed to stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data, which is fuelling investor risk appetite. For aluminium prices, strength is being driven by both fresh buying and short covering, though there are concerns that the market may have overextended on long position building.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China
      • Chinese manufacturing PMI
      • China property sales, starts and completions
      • Japanese semis output
    • North America
    • Europe
    • Summary of September production, kt
    • China smelter cuts and restarts in 2017 (excluding winter cuts)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2016-2019, (kt)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 29 images and tables including:

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Global PMI's broadly supportive for aluminium demand
  • Global supply-demand balance and days of consumption, 2016 - 2020
  • Index of LME prices, Jan 3 = 100
  • LME cash price and spreads, July 2017 - October 2017
  • Profitability on aluminium LME financing
  • Global benchmark aluminium premia
  • US production of automotive sheet
  • Chinese exports of semis to the EU
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Planned China new capacity refinery projects in 2017, (kt)
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2017

    PDF 866.92 KB

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO October 2017.xls

    XLS 522.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2017

    ZIP 1.03 MB

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